The forecast, published by Morgan Stanley, suggests that up to 10% of roles across major European banks could be affected by 2030 as AI tools become more deeply embedded in day-to-day operations. The analysis looked at 35 leading banks employing more than two million people across the region.
Roles most exposed to automation are concentrated in central and middle-office functions, including back-office processing, compliance, risk management and other administrative tasks where repetitive workflows are increasingly handled by software. Analysts estimate that AI could deliver productivity gains of up to 30% in some areas, giving banks a strong incentive to streamline headcount.
The findings come as European lenders face mounting pressure to protect margins in a competitive environment shaped by digital-first challengers, rising technology costs and tighter regulatory scrutiny. Many banks are already pursuing multi-year efficiency programmes, combining branch rationalisation, IT modernisation and workforce restructuring.
While the report highlights significant job risk, it does not suggest a wholesale reduction in banking employment. Instead, analysts point to a gradual reshaping of the workforce, with some roles eliminated while others evolve or are created in areas such as data, cybersecurity, AI governance and digital infrastructure.
For the wider digital infrastructure ecosystem, the trend reinforces the growing reliance of financial services on resilient connectivity, cloud platforms and data centre capacity. As banks automate more processes and deploy AI at scale, demand for secure, low-latency networks continues to rise.
From a UK and European perspective, the forecast adds to an intensifying debate around reskilling and workforce transition. Regulators and industry leaders have increasingly stressed the need to retrain staff whose roles are most vulnerable, ensuring that efficiency gains from AI do not come at the expense of long-term capability.
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