The next few years could be pivotal for how AI is invested in and used, as productivity increases are expected to fuel reinvestment for growth.

According to new research from the IBM Institute of Business Value, 67% expect AI to eliminate resource and skills constraints and 79% of surveyed executives expected AI will significantly contribute to their revenue by 2030 – an increase of 40%. However, very few (24%) actually know where that revenue will come from.

Despite uncertainties, investment is accelerating. Respondents to the IBM survey predict that AI investment will surge by approximately 150% between now and 2030, driving smarter business growth.

“AI won’t just support businesses, it will define them,” said Mohamad Ali, senior vice president at IBM Consulting. “By 2030, the companies that win will weave AI into every decision and operation.”

IBM’s findings ultimately suggest that future success with AI technologies will come from making bolder strategic bets, even has many executives that were surveyed are facing a gap between expectations and outcomes.

Some of the key findings reveal that executives are looking beyond AI efficiency to drive future gains. While nearly half (47%) of AI spend is focused on efficiency, respondents expect 62% of AI spend will be dedicated to innovation by 2030. IBM said 70% of surveyed executives plan to reinvest the value from AI-powered productivity gains into growth initiatives.

At the same time, 68% of executives surveyed worry their AI efforts will fail due to lacking integration with core business activities.

While most surveyed (57%) said their competitive advantage will come from AI model sophistication, only 28% have a clear view of what AI models they will need by 2030.

82% of respondents expect their AI capabilities to be multi-model by 2030, and 72% expect small language models (SLMs) to surpass large language models (LLMs).

When it comes to quantum, which has been touted as a gamechanger for 2026, 59% said quantum-enabled AI will transform their industry by 2030. However, only 27% expect to be using quantum computing by then – a gap that suggests greater opportunities for organisations that are prepared to act today, IBM said.

Looking ahead to 2030, executives believe 25% of enterprise boards will have an AI advisor or co-decision maker, in addition to 74% saying that AI will redefine leadership roles across the enterprise. Two-thirds of executives believe AI will create entirely new leadership roles.

Meanwhile, 67% of respondents said job roles are becoming shorter-lived, 57% expect most current employee skills to be obsolete by 2030 and 67% agree mindset will matter more than skills.

67% of those surveyed by IBM also expect AI to eliminate the resource and skills constraints that hold their organisation back today.

For AI-first organisations, IBM’s analysis shows they are 48% more likely to create net-new job roles, with 46% more likely to redesign their organisational structure to achieve more AI value.

Ali added: “They will own powerful AI assets, move faster than competitors, bring innovations to market quickly and deliver real, measurable business results using technology and automation.”

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