With new intercontinental systems such as SEA-ME-WE 6 and major intra-regional networks like Mobily Red Sea Cable (MRSC) RFS 1Q27 and the Fibre In Gulf (FIG) cable project which will link seven countries across the Middle East and is expected to be completed by 2027, the Middle East is experiencing a new wave of investment, expansion and operational transformation.
Julian Rawle, principal at Julian Rawle Consulting LLC, believes that the region’s ambitious Information and Communications Technology (ICT) strategies are largely behind the investment surge – backed by robust government policies and a gradual relaxation of regulatory frameworks – it creates a fertile environment for innovation and expansion.
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 sets out to establish Saudi Arabia among the world’s top artificial intelligence powers, with projections that AI could add as much as $135 billion to its economy by the end of the decade.
To support the goal, the country is investing heavily – most recently a $5 billion net-zero AI data centre being developed by DataVolt in NEOM’s Oxagon industrial zone and a separate $5 billion-plus investment by Amazon Web Services (AWS) to establish an “AI Zone”.
The Kingdom is also investing in sovereign AI capabilities, launching initiatives such as HUMAIN to develop artificial intelligence models tailored for Arabic speakers and regional needs.
Both Rawle and Tony O’Sullivan, CEO of RETN, believe that to claim AI as being behind the region’s current boom is short-sighted, and is more likely to be a small part amidst the global evolution of data transport whilst a greater need for route diversity and retirement of legacy systems is also playing a part in the surge of new subsea investments.
O’Sullivan states: “If the expectation is to point to a single driver like ‘AI’, that would be inaccurate; this growth is largely the result of ongoing, organic increases in data consumption across many technologies, including AI.”
“We’re seeing a surge in new subsea systems driven by the need for additional route diversity, steady increases in overall traffic demand, and the retirement of legacy systems that can’t be upgraded to the latest DWDM technology,” he says.
Rawle agrees “I am still not convinced that AI is going to lead to a massive increase in demand for submarine connectivity. If a large proportion of AI data is kept within sovereign borders, I am not sure that this is going to have a major impact of submarine cables.
“Beyond that, despite data sovereignty requirements, countries will still need to share data via subsea cables. Maybe we will see more onerous cybersecurity requirements on subsea cables and associated infrastructure, but I have learned recently that cybersecurity is an area where enterprises want to maintain control with their own systems and will not appreciate having to deal with incompatibilities between their own networks and the subsea network.”
A region facing rising capacity demands
The pace of announcements for new cables has accelerated in recent years, but whether it is enough to meet upcoming needs is still a matter of debate. Rawle believes that there could be a demand squeeze in the region, simply because several major systems have been held up by conflict.
In O’Sullivan’s view the market will continue to accelerate at pace. “I expect more announcements in the near future,” he explains. “Demand continues to grow rapidly, and operators are acutely aware that redundancy and capacity are vital.”
The result is a regional ecosystem that is no longer satisfied with being a mere transit zone. The Middle East is increasingly becoming a destination for processing and exchanging data traffic in its own right.
The rise of intra-regional connectivity
As far back at the 19th century, the Middle East’s subsea landscape revolved around east-west intercontinental traffic routes. However, the last few years have marked a fundamental shift, with intra-regional networks gaining prominence and reshaping how traffic flows.
O’Sullivan attributes this shift to the region’s economic transformation and growing technological maturity.
“The Middle East is no longer merely an adjunct to Europe-Asia routes; it has become a data destination in its own right,” he says. RETN’s own expansion reflects that change. “Many major operators, including RETN, have expanded into the region in recent years and are now exchanging traffic locally, supported in our case by a recently established PoP in Dubai and strong regional interconnection via our PoPs in Turkey.”
This evolution in demand patterns has been supported by gradual regulatory reforms that encourage market entry and competition, as well as significant growth in traffic originating from Africa and South Asia.
O’Sullivan points out that declining prices have also played a role. As more cables land along regional coastlines, the economics of local traffic exchange have improved substantially, creating what he describes as “a bilateral cause-and-effect dynamic” between rising capacity and rising demand.
Responding to high-profile cable cuts
The Middle East’s rapid digital expansion has recently been overshadowed by a string of significant subsea cable disruptions, particularly along maritime routes like the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf where there is a concentration of high-capacity submarine systems.
In September of last year, a major incident occurred where several critical cables (including SEA-ME-WE-4, IMEWE, and FALCON) were severed in the Red Sea. Causing internet latency issues and affecting connectivity across the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa.
Investigations suggested that the damage was likely accidental. However, the Red Sea remains an area of considerable geopolitical tension, and the cable cuts followed a 2024 incident that was connected to Houthi-related unrest.
However, Rawle points out that cable cuts are not a new problem. “It’s not a recent phenomenon. Cable cuts are part and parcel of the day-to-day operation of submarine cables. Cable owners will always have restoration plans, involving the use of other cable systems, submarine and terrestrial.
“However, the Red Sea has become a choke point where the potential for multiple cables to be damaged at the same time has increased with every new cable laid in that channel.
“As a result, and notwithstanding the heightened risk through Houthi activity at the southern end of the Red Sea, cable owners and network operators are thinking outside the box about new routes, either as back-up or as a replacement primary route.”
Despite the proliferation of subsea cables worldwide, there remains a striking shortage of dedicated cable repair vessels, an issue made even more acute in challenging environments such as the Red Sea.
According to the International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC), there are currently only around 60 cable repair ships in operation globally, many of which have been in service for decades. This limited fleet is stretched thin, especially given the scale and complexity of today’s subsea infrastructure.
Rawle notes that securing investment for new cable ships has often been seen as a poor business case, with limited ROI. However, he believes this may change as ‘the content providers have a different agenda other than pure ROI’.
Rawle cites the news earlier this year that saw KKR-backed OMS Group announce contracts for the construction of two new next-generation cable repair vessels, with the possibility of two more vessels in future, a small sign that the industry’s approach to investment may be shifting.
Beyond expanding the fleet, coordinated protection and maintenance efforts are essential to safeguarding the world’s subsea networks. Rawle highlights the pivotal role of the International Cable Protection Committee, describing the ICPC as the bedrock of the industry’s proactive measures to protect cables.
The ICPC’s work in fostering collaboration, setting standards, and driving best practices is fundamental to ensuring the continued reliability and security of global connectivity.
O’Sullivan observes that, prompted by recent challenges, a significant number of operators are now proactively diversifying their core network routes. “Operators are increasingly moving away from relying solely on Red Sea subsea routes, instead exploring terrestrial alternatives through Turkey or the Mediterranean,” he explains.
Although the Arabian Gulf remains vulnerable – owing to dense shipping lanes and shallow waters – the introduction of multiple landing points has helped to distribute risk more effectively.
O’Sullivan points out that these additional landing sites have already mitigated the impact of potential service interruptions. Rawle concurs, pointing out that much of the Asia-Europe traffic is latency-insensitive, making longer but safer routes viable.
This strategic diversification is about more than just mitigating outages; it is a concerted effort to reduce the systemic risks posed by geographical chokepoints that carry a disproportionate volume of global data. When a single incident in a confined passage can jeopardise worldwide connectivity, establishing alternative routes is no longer a luxury but a necessity.
Across the Middle East, operators are reassessing established approaches to traffic engineering, considering terrestrial corridors, leveraging satellite technology for critical signalling, and investigating new maritime paths that circumvent the most congested or politically sensitive waters. This change signals a more sophisticated understanding that true network resilience is not defined solely by capacity, but by the extent to which that capacity is geographically and politically diversified.
Simultaneously, the adoption of advanced marine analytics and real-time monitoring tools is becoming more widespread. These sensing and “smart cable” technologies enable earlier detection of potential hazards – such as anchor drags, seismic disturbances, or unauthorised seabed activities – before they result in physical damage.
For O’Sullivan, this evolution is both inevitable and necessary: the region’s infrastructure must not only grow in scale, but also in intelligence. He notes that heightened situational awareness is rapidly becoming as vital as increasing the number of fibre pairs.
Rawle summarises the challenges succinctly. He points out that there are no straightforward solutions to mitigating geopolitical or regional risks and whilst raising and maintaining government awareness of the strategic value of subsea assets is a worthwhile activity, geopolitical events, such as U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) actions to remove any Chinese involvement in submarine fibre-optic infrastructure landing on U.S. territory, can still blindside the industry.
Nonetheless, as governments come to recognise subsea cables as critical national assets, coordination and collaboration are slowly improving. “With the understanding that international internet connectivity is a strategic necessity, more governments are prioritising cable protection and fostering closer cooperation with industry,” O’Sullivan concludes.
However, Rawle adds that the ICPC’s role is critical in this respect to ensure that government intervention is beneficial and not over-reaching.
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