New findings from GSMA Intelligence show that a wave of mergers and joint ventures is already reshaping the competitive landscape as operators scramble for the scale needed to challenge Starlink’s dominance.

The report, Satellite and NTN tracker, Q4 2025: Consolidation comes early, concludes that the industry has reached an inflection point. “Consolidation is already upon us… The timetable for consolidation has moved up, and we may well see more in the next two years,” the analysts write.

Satellite, like terrestrial telecoms, is fundamentally an infrastructure business where profitability depends on spectrum depth, capital access and sheer constellation size.

Deals stack up before revenues arrive

Evidence of the shake-out is visible in a string of high-profile transactions over the past six months. The study highlights the SES/Intelsat merger, the Eutelsat/OneWeb tie-up and newer combinations such as Omnispace/Lynk and Viasat/Space42, which created the Equatys wholesale venture. These moves are not opportunistic, GSMA argues, but defensive: smaller players must pool spectrum and funding to remain credible as direct-to-device (D2D) services move towards launch in 2026.

The urgency stems from Starlink’s accelerating lead. SpaceX has now deployed around 9,300 satellites, close to 80% of its initial 12,000-strong constellation, giving it roughly 90% of current orbital capacity. With new operator partners such as BT and Virgin Media O2 added in late 2025, the US provider has rapidly extended its reach beyond North America and into core European markets.

UK operators hedge their bets

For UK telcos the message is mixed: opportunity is growing, but vendor risk is rising. Across the world 70% of mobile operators now have at least one satellite partnership, and operators hold an average of 1.4 partnerships each as they hedge against uncertainty over which constellations will survive.

The addressable footprint for satellite connectivity already spans around 6 billion mobile connections.

Britain is among the countries where satellite connectivity has launched with multiple operators, reflecting strong interest from enterprise, rural access and resilience use cases. Yet UK carriers face a strategic dilemma: commit early to a single ecosystem and risk backing the wrong horse, or spread partnerships and accept higher integration costs.

2026 launch window, 2025 power play

GSMA Intelligence describes 2026 as “launch time”, with constellation volumes ramped in the second half of 2025 in preparation for phased roll-outs. The focus remains on D2D services, though activity is also rising in aviation, IoT and broadcast segments. But the market structure is being decided before revenues flow.

Finite spectrum positions and punishing capex requirements make it “expensive and difficult to compete against Starlink and other well-funded behemoths such as Amazon”. Even ambitious challengers like AST SpaceMobile, targeting a 60-satellite constellation by end-2026, must overcome the first-mover advantage enjoyed by SpaceX .

What happens next

For UK connectivity providers, the next 18–24 months will be pivotal. Consolidation could simplify wholesale buying, but it may also reduce choice and harden pricing power in favour of the largest constellations. Operators planning hybrid terrestrial-satellite offers must decide whether to double down on early partners or keep options open until the dust settles.

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