That warning comes as South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix today unveiled plans for a near $13bn advanced chip packaging plant, the biggest move so far by one of the “Big Three” memory providers to address supply constraints.

The facility, focused on high-bandwidth memory (HBM), is not expected to be operational until the tail end of 2027.

While the announcement signals long-term confidence in the market, it offers little immediate relief for firms already struggling with rising prices and long lead times.

“The DRAM/HBM shortages are very real,” Kaye said. “Demand is up across the board, and manufacturers simply cannot keep up. They’re facing extremely difficult decisions.”

One of those decisions, he explained, has been a strategic shift in production. Memory manufacturers are increasingly prioritising HBM3, the ultra-high-bandwidth memory used in modern AI GPUs, at the expense of traditional DRAM.

The knock-on effects are significant. Advanced AI platforms may rely on HBM, but they also require large volumes of registered dual in-line memory modules (RDIMMs), often at high densities of 96GB, 128GB or 256GB.

“While manufacturers rush to meet HBM3 demand, the DRAM supply is suffering even more,” Kaye said. “Unlike HBM3, RDIMM is used in all server types, so the effects are being felt across all industries.”

With demand showing no sign of slowing and new manufacturing capacity still years away, Kaye warns the imbalance is likely to worsen before it improves.

That leaves businesses facing difficult choices. Waiting for prices to fall could prove costly if shortages persist, but rushing to secure supply risks locking in expensive inventory just as the scale of the problem becomes clear.

“For each organisation, the solution is to carefully consider priorities, create a long-term plan and work with channel experts,” Kaye said. “Understanding what hardware is needed over the next 12 to 24 months is critical to avoiding disruption, regardless of how long the shortages last.”

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