The findings indicate that the segment’s realistic annual revenue pool at closer to $15 billion, roughly 2–3% of the stated figure.
The IPO, the largest in history, valued SpaceX at $2.5 trillion after shares closed 40% above their offer price on the first day of trading.
The prospectus assigns a combined $28.5 trillion TAM across the business, of which 90% is linked to AI-related opportunities such as enterprise applications and infrastructure. Connectivity, spanning Starlink’s broadband and direct-to-device mobile services, accounts for just over 5% of the total.
Starlink Mobile’s $740 billion TAM effectively represents the entirety of global mobile service revenue outside China and Russia, markets where SpaceX does not currently operate. Yet the business generated just over $600 million in its first full year, implying the company is targeting a revenue pool over 1,000 times larger than current turnover.
Applying assumptions around spectrum availability, network capacity and a service tier broadly equivalent to LTE speeds (around 20 Mbps), the analysis estimates Starlink Mobile’s realistic addressable market at approximately $15 billion a year, a figure that also accounts for the competitive response likely from mobile operators should SpaceX pursue direct-to-consumer service at scale.
The findings from GSMA Intelligence underline a wider tension for operators: Starlink is currently a wholesale and roaming partner to 16 telecoms groups, but the capital raised through the IPO strengthens its ability to fund next-generation V2 and V3 satellites and could equally support a shift toward direct competition with the operators it currently serves.
RELATED STORIES
Starlink, AI and space data centres: How the SpaceX IPO could change everything
