This takes their share of the mobile market, excluding machine-to-machine connections, from around 23% today to more than 30%.

The forecast, published in FDM CCS Insight’s Spotlight: MVNOs, UK, 2026 report, excludes operator sub-brands such as giffgaff and Voxi. Total UK MVNO service revenue is projected to almost double over the same period, from just under £2.4 billion in 2025 to more than £4.5 billion by 2031, even as average revenue per user among MVNOs continues to lag behind their network operator partners.

The report points to fintech companies as one of the sector’s fastest-growing entrants, offering mobile connectivity directly through existing customer apps via eSIM, enabled by providers such as Gigs and 1Global. FDM CCS Insight forecasts this group will reach more than 3 million customers by 2031, an 11% share of the UK MVNO market.

Kester Mann, director of consumer and connectivity at FDM CCS Insight, described the trend as “bittersweet” for network operators. Virtual providers offer a path to higher wholesale revenue as telcos connect new customers to their networks, he said, but also bring greater retail competition that threatens to stymie operators’ own growth. He expects O2, EE, Three and Vodafone to face continued customer losses, only partially offset by their own sub-brands.

Mann added that MVNO momentum is unlikely to last indefinitely, with market share gains expected to slow toward the end of the decade as operators adopt a stricter approach to contract renegotiations. Operators, he noted, still control network access, giving them an inherent ceiling on how far MVNOs can grow.

FDM CCS Insight recommends that established MVNOs move beyond price competition, suggesting broader product sets such as home broadband, stronger branding and tighter loyalty programme integration to stand out as the market matures.

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